Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

Oil prices remain subdued despite unprecedented supply shocks from the Iran war, defying expectations of a surge above $200/barrel. Analysts including Rystad Energy now warn of an imminent correction, citing depleted global inventories and a rush to stockpile oil as a precursor to sustained price spikes.

Major outlets—including *Fortune*, *Bloomberg*, and *Financial Times*—highlight China’s role as the linchpin in delaying market reactions, with *The Economist* emphasizing the rapid depletion of strategic reserves worldwide. The *Wall Street Journal* notes that emergency stockpiling efforts will prolong elevated prices, while *Axios* and *marketplace.org* focus on the windfall profits for oil and gas firms amid geopolitical instability. *Yahoo Finance* and *VT Markets* underscore the disconnect between supply shocks and price movements, pointing to China’s unsustainable price suppression strategy.

Watch for signs of China’s reserve depletion or policy shifts, which could trigger a sharp price correction. The *WSJ*’s focus on prolonged high prices suggests a structural shift in market dynamics, while *The Economist*’s reserve depletion warnings may foreshadow near-term volatility.