# Russia May Launch Oreshnik Missile at Ukraine on Friday, Air Force Warns

> **Open Intelligence Dossier** · First detected: 2026-06-13 06:07 UTC · Category: World

## Executive Summary
Ukraine's Air Force has issued a warning regarding a high probability of a Russian Oreshnik ballistic missile launch from the Kapustin Yar training ground.

## Intelligence Brief
Ukraine's Air Force reports a high probability of a ballistic missile launch involving the Oreshnik system. Authorities have advised civilians to remain attentive to air raid alerts throughout the coming days.


Coverage from outlets including The Kyiv Independent, Defense Express, Meduza, Ukrinform, and the Kyiv Post emphasizes the timing of the potential strike. The Institute for the Study of War has included the situation in its ongoing assessment of the Russian offensive campaign.


Coverage does not yet specify the intended targets or the broader strategic implications of such an action.

## Multi-Source Evidence Table
| Source Outlet | Headline | Verification URL |
|---|---|---|
| The Kyiv Independent | 'High probability' of Russian missile launch from Oreshnik site over next day, Ukraine's Air Force warns | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxNMGNMeDlTU09uOU5Mc3F3Z1MwR0RXTXVmdDY3M1JFcnAtSVgyMGVGQUVLZ3hTY1FTR1lFZW5SV09jMmxDTTFRTUNQaTF4ODZaMUptQ3pWLXJjRTlFRVB0LWkwVFR4R0pOWGtLV1h6cXpObkpYckhQbnFDU2w1M0pCNS1QcVV6RDhnWWxUaXI2WjVRaWlOOGlFa3dsLTBFZnJXQnNwYmVySmxyMG4wNllmbW9BR0VXYXJTM21sbg?oc=5) |
| Українська правда | Zelenskyy urges Ukrainians to pay attention during air raids in coming days | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZEFVX3lxTE9mRE05QjFpd1BseEZhajBOYUVJTDVyMjBGSWlraGo1WktlTTdTeDhvTFNwc01hek9DMnptMkcxaVhDNFJoazVrTFA4RzRUZjNkWlFyajZlbWhmNmFaVUF4Q01NYlfSAXBBVV95cUxOSVMya19tVkhzOXc4dVotVGRmZlphQ2pMY3R5SktUSUJDQ2w2ZDVlVGVFOTYtOW1GOGxmdXRJREdtbUotUXNvamtuVXRkWlE3T2NEcXZUNkwwQjJFZ3MwVHA2UWNWeDdxQjVvUlFJNGJC?oc=5) |
| Defense Express | ​Ukraine's Air Force: russia May Launch Oreshnik Missile Against Ukraine Within 24 Hours | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNRjBpV3VXNVpueWRmQmV2T0hjdmRacEU0TUllQVZUVUxJQlVMa0FRQzQwNGZZYjhZbmt2bUpkclAzSkZwNVNMQUVUdF9DcFpzNmJrTEJpX0gybnVqMTFucEktZTNGZG13MmcxWmNKTjRKM3lvTkduSTJHa0IzaFNzV1I2YlRFOFI5RU5DVmlHVDhmTXpydVVvOVZ0SHNaWW9tNE9nRTF3c1E2QS1CREg5VWVqNTVxTDFBUGpWemRJY0RuTVVmZ2c?oc=5) |
| Meduza | Ukraine warns of another Oreshnik strike within 24 hours after U.S. passes on Russian warning | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxPSm9oaktrd1RYeXd6T285U2FEUDRzSnpnVFRORWJxblJQM2tyVG5iaGZGdjgxNjY1X0xTYkJNU0ZJVVYtbnNDYUp1OVc1TUVhSmFFLXM0ZzB1c0dfaXpIdXhrS3VEc1I4STQ2VzQxeC1hVDNLQl9FMmJBeFJ5cUlHZzF4Z3piTmlCMDdabnFoMExSelF1dW1BSUZXc0lWMUgyMFVNSEwybHByZ3ZVNHFKTGVhekFZb19YQUNHNGEzOW5OcFY2ZzdSVdIBzgFBVV95cUxNbjF5dnVma2VvSWhOMjFGTUozNG4xWm1WS2N4QmNJeTRPdkNUNDA3Q01OOFo4Rmx4ZHctVTZtRng4U2V1WXkwVnZjbTRYb1IzY3Z6cm5jOXV3YUN1dlpmaGFKS1NfWkV4YlE1U1VYMWg5MWlVclpZcTNnR3A3b0dENGFiRzFtRWlUcGR) |
| Ukrinform - Ukrainian National News Agency | Air Force: High probability of missile launches from Russian Kapustin Yar training ground within next 24 hours | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi8AFBVV95cUxPSzZjSnl4dnhHVGItSVg4Qy1TVnF0X1NlVlZ1OGV3ZjBJaHpXMGpLWEFtd0gyU093aTRuV2cycVgtblY2U2dwNUhtWUxwZkdrbjNhdklWU1hLTnJMZjJFYkRucjJoSnE0WWN0dnpsQkdYYzk2TzRhRmY3N3ZUbXNUUnZUZHdMellXMnFvWl9TRmEzZTh3empyVG1DZktHZjNpNWF0VWJkdkRaTXUxMGZvQmhrQzlXLXU2R012V3U5c2JoWlp4ZnRiTlNqMzBMQ3c4TEJOSUprcFVvSXV3eWxXaE50MC1hSE45bXhXX0h5RXE?oc=5) |
| Українська правда | High probability of Oreshnik ballistic missile launches over the next 24 hours – Ukraine's Air Force | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZEFVX3lxTE54NEhrREI3aHktVkJVcklUWkRrRE51bnl6R3lvZnhiY0UxZ203MDk5UVpYdzFJWTZRZ0RGTGg3Mk05SDlSVnJ6NkJiNlAyRXVZcW80QjNZWVk2WjhmMU1BRDNQR0zSAXBBVV95cUxPQnZZX3VCdmxJeVZxUUs3NXpEVExRT1d2LUxRd1Q3OTE2ZzFGLTZBVVA0ZGN5aUV1b1B0dGxKcDB0Q3ZVV0J0bkxtNzVzSmlXcDdwcFkxWkdUTUxEYUNPejNDZDVkY1E2VUIxQ292RDB1?oc=5) |
| Institute for the Study of War | Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2026 | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQRS1zUzNiRU9fb2Qxb1lnWDlJQ1ZHYzV0ZGZvOExHY2VlSG9zOC1SLUlpM1RWdUVlS0Y1NE1ib2FGS2pEaEpXcWs4SFhoLVNrZFF1TVg5aFI0U2QwTVEtR3JudzR3WGNCZTVLYTQyazllc2I2ODQ1Q0UwdHRZSHl1YTFlQVhkeWk1c2cyMjNNMmxWdUMwSlpmcEpLNTZMcGViN2xPdUZ5UQ?oc=5) |
| Kyiv Post | Russia May Launch Oreshnik Missile at Ukraine on Friday, Air Force Warns | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE9wMXMzcTlIWC1TdDExU1RvRmtEN3U3SUxab0NXMTdZMGRIenZkS1A2TXA3dEk5NmEzTm1Sc2g1RkRCckZScnNDaGFZYw?oc=5) |

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*Canonical Source: https://pulse.byoviral.com/trend/2026-06-13/russia-may-launch-oreshnik-missile-at-ukraine-on-friday-air-force-warns*