Ukraine Remade Air Defense, but Russia Has Changed Its Attacks

Ukraine has significantly increased its campaign of deep strikes against Russian infrastructure, specifically targeting oil refineries. According to reports from Yahoo and UNITED24 Media, Ukraine hit Russian oil refineries nearly 200 times during the first half of 2026. This represents a massive escalation in activity, as Yahoo reports that strikes on these refineries have increased elevenfold. These operations are being carried out while the Russian offensive is described by the Kyiv Post as currently stalling. Coverage from Yahoo and the Kyiv Post emphasizes the role of the United States in these operations.

Yahoo reports that the US is helping Ukraine bypass Russian air defenses to facilitate these long-range attacks. The Kyiv Post explicitly states that US aides are supporting Ukraine's deep strikes. In response to these developments, the Kyiv Post reports that the Kremlin has ordered a media blackout, suggesting an attempt to control the narrative regarding the success of these strikes and the status of the Russian military's own offensive efforts. The context of this trend reveals a strategic shift in the conflict, focusing on the economic and logistical hubs of the Russian state. By targeting oil refineries nearly 200 times in the first six months of 2026, Ukraine is attempting to degrade Russia's energy sector.

The involvement of US intelligence and technical assistance to circumvent air defenses indicates a high level of coordination between Kyiv and Washington to penetrate Russian airspace and strike high-value targets far from the front lines. Future developments to monitor include the effectiveness of the Kremlin's media blackout and whether the stalled Russian offensive leads to further changes in tactical approach. Based on the reported elevenfold increase in refinery strikes, observers will be looking for further data on the impact of these hits on Russian oil production. Additionally, the continued level of US support for bypassing air defenses will remain a critical factor in the frequency and success of future deep strikes into Russian territory.