Gold's rally 'has support', with prices set to rise toward $5,000 next year, UBS says

UBS announced that the recent rally in gold prices may not be finished, projecting the metal to climb toward $5,000 in the first half of next year. The forecast specifically targets the H1 period of the next calendar year. BNP Paribas echoed a similar price target, saying gold could hit $5,000 as political pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve weakens the U.S. dollar. Coverage of the forecasts appeared across three financial outlets. The Wealth Advisor carried the headline that UBS says the gold rally may not be finished, focusing on the bank's assessment of market support. Seeking Alpha reproduced the UBS outlook, noting the specific target of $5,000 and referencing the GLD ticker on NYSE Arca.

Yahoo Finance added the BNP Paribas perspective, linking the price projection to Trump‑related pressure on the Fed and its impact on dollar strength. The commentary arrives amid a broader backdrop of a sustained gold rally that analysts attribute to safe‑haven demand and a weakening dollar. Gold’s price has risen sharply over the past months, prompting analysts to look for support levels. UBS and BNP Paribas, both major banks, have historically issued commodity forecasts that influence trader sentiment. The mention of Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve suggests a political dimension, as policy expectations can affect the dollar’s value and, by extension, gold prices. The convergence of a bullish price target and concerns over monetary policy underscores why the forecasts are drawing attention.

Investors will likely watch spot gold movements for signs that the metal is approaching the $5,000 threshold. Further statements from UBS or BNP Paribas could reinforce or adjust the outlook. Market participants are also expected to monitor Federal Reserve communications for any response to political pressure, as well as dollar index fluctuations that could validate the link highlighted by Yahoo Finance. Watch for any macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation reports, that could influence Fed policy and the dollar, shaping whether the projected rally materializes.