# How Accurate Were Kalshi and Polymarket at Picking Midterm Winners?

> **Open Intelligence Dossier** · First detected: 2026-11-06 17:00 UTC · Category: Business

## Executive Summary
4 news sources are covering this Business story right now — PULSE is tracking how fast it spreads.

## Intelligence Brief
"How Accurate Were Kalshi and Polymarket at Picking Midterm Winners?" is generating significant coverage in the Business category, with 4 articles from 4 distinct sources tracked by PULSE so far.


Outlets currently covering the story include Better Markets, Washington Examiner, Instagram and The New York Times. PULSE measures a story's velocity from how quickly new articles appear and how many independent newsrooms join the coverage.


This brief was generated by PULSE's extractive engine from coverage metadata only. The latest headlines from every source are listed below; the velocity chart shows how the story is developing in real time.

## Multi-Source Evidence Table
| Source Outlet | Headline | Verification URL |
|---|---|---|
| Quartz | Kalshi and Polymarket claim 98% accuracy on midterm race calls | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMic0FVX3lxTE5jRWJnWVFsTlZndU1hbk42dXBZbkpVd1pyOTBsT1RUSG81djdHX1RjeUl0dEhXN2VoX00ydzFEUkE0Rk12dTlNY0kySHNhbzhqdkdSOExncXBNaEJKdjRiendZODF3ZWNqMHR2eDhyLUtIa2c?oc=5) |
| Better Markets | Prediction Markets Election Bets Wrong Again | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPaTlVNnhCUUZxZlVaTDRwUlFpM3c0bGZCRUNScXVUUExUVVZUYkFpNUxaTllRaTRlMUNoVXdsQzJleDI5UDlzYy1scjJlSzl5STBVWTMwV2ItU2RNTkJrUG43aGsySkkxM0FKeFp2ZDJJY2l2XzVwVkRnUkR2VWxPVVhsSkZQRGs?oc=5) |
| Washington Examiner | The key to Kalshi’s election night success — and how a trader won more than $350,000 | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxONWsyejhZRVRiUGdEdWd4emFPYzZ0UnctN0tvMk1weVNrSFFfbEVIUkIwZ2I3eDQ5MUVwSWZ5Q21pbW03S1BzX3J2MEdJNGk0VE9uTjRsWldScUFQRExXbnZjQlJjV3pNd3haYlBZQW9uUkFPZFFTd2V5OVNTYk5MWnptRlNmRm5iM2VHZ2xPMXc5N2dQZHVUNGJWQncxdWFBM1ZLQWNGMjZENF9fZEpvS2dvSlFHZw?oc=5) |
| Instagram | #TSRPolitics: Roomies, don’t say @Kalshi didn’t try to put y’all on game before Election Day! Last night’s blue tsunami brought some history-making victories and major upsets, but Kalshi users had been predicting several of these wins for weeks! We’ve fea | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiUkFVX3lxTFBtSkJPLVU4T0tUeHNQeU5aQzJWN1BOOWVNSHBDSzh4eFBkTUsxTl81MmthRmNveUxCNTFQS0dnb3F6M216Q01MUDJHVHlQaHpKTnc?oc=5) |
| The New York Times | How Accurate Were Kalshi and Polymarket at Picking Midterm Winners? | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxPMEgtcjF6T3pGN2R2T1B5SmtfMVBSdGpibkVLd2hycExUNE92b1IzcDRNbGdKR0QxRkgyeXhwZnBrcVlvZ2hZR2hTVHQ0RERxNkluMkxBTE41Z1JhWUtzQ3hlNVBTanhfZi1fV1JPazU5MGpaakd6eEJQSmhfUnJPVEJOSUI3RHM5ZWpqbHJOaHBMbXNyY0Q0MnJuNTBJd0JFOVJDWndzSUJGSmNOMy1qV1oxNVdZZ3hlblYwd0o2MzlhZw?oc=5) |

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*Canonical Source: https://pulse.byoviral.com/trend/2026-11-06/how-accurate-were-kalshi-and-polymarket-at-picking-midterm-winners*