China Producer Inflation Accelerates to Over Four-Year High

China's producer price index climbed 5.7% last month from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics reported by Reuters. This exceeded the 5.0% increase recorded in September and beat a Reuters poll forecast of a 5.3% rise. Reuters reported that it was the largest annual rise since June 2022, when the producer price index rose by 6.1% according to LSEG data. CNBC noted that wholesale inflation accelerated for the third month in a row.

Reuters reported that higher global oil prices raised manufacturing costs, driving the factory-gate inflation alongside a sharp rise in prices in the mining and raw materials industries as CNBC noted. The war in the Middle East has kept energy prices high, raising costs for coal mining, oil and natural gas extraction and processing, chemicals, and other energy-intensive sectors, according to Reuters. Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, told CNBC that very strong external demand also drove the increase.

While upstream price pressures climbed, consumer inflation cooled in the world's second-largest economy. The consumer price index rose by 0.7% year-on-year in October, falling below economists' expectations for a 0.8% increase and dropping from September's 0.9% rise, Reuters and CNBC reported. CNBC noted this was the first deceleration after two straight months of increases. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the urban division at China's National Bureau of Statistics, stated that gasoline prices were the largest contributor to the increase in consumer prices, but this was offset by a sharper than expected fall in food prices.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 0.8% in October from 1.0% in September. Reuters reported that weak household demand constrains spending, meaning upstream price pressures have yet to fully feed through to consumers. Zhang Zhiwei stated to CNBC that domestic demand remains rather weak due to the property market, with no clear sign of stabilization yet, which weighs on household consumer confidence and local government revenue.

Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics, stated to Reuters that the price shock from the Middle East conflict will keep inflation elevated over the coming months, though its impact should fade next year. Nguyen Hoang Nam expected a return to deflation in producer prices and consumer inflation averaging 0.4% in 2027. Meanwhile, mainland China's CSI 300 index gained 0.56% after the data release, according to CNBC.