See how China finally slowed its ballooning emissions right down

China's carbon dioxide emissions from energy and industry declined 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, marking the largest quarterly drop since the pandemic, according to analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief. This reduction represents the fastest pace of emissions decline since Covid-19 lockdowns, with coal use falling 3.3% and oil use dropping 4% year-on-year. Transport oil use declined even more sharply, falling 9% as electric vehicles gained market share, accounting for two in three new passenger vehicles sold in China in September alone. The analysis attributes the emissions drop to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which curtailed energy shipments and pushed consumers toward electric vehicles amid rising fuel costs. Renewable energy growth also played a key role, with wind, solar, and nuclear generation increasing by 110 terawatt hours year-on-year—enough to power Germany and more than twice the amount needed to meet China's growing electricity demand. Despite continued construction of new coal plants at near-record rates, average running hours for coal-fired power plants are falling faster than total generation, eroding their profitability. The emissions decline extends a 'flat or falling' trend that began in March 2024 and has now lasted more than two years. China's emissions have fallen 0.5% in the first three quarters of 2026, suggesting the downward trajectory may continue through the full year. Some of the reduction may stem from China's economic slowdown, including a construction sector slowdown affecting steel and cement production. However, analysts note that electricity demand could rise again as electric vehicles operate more frequently and data centers expand. The transition between coal-fired power stations and renewable sources will determine whether emissions continue to decline or rebound. China added enough clean power generation in Q3 to equal Germany's total power output, according to Carbon Brief's analysis. The country is generating much more clean electricity than its grid can handle, rejecting roughly a quarter of wind and solar output in the first half of 2026 due to insufficient transmission infrastructure. A policy guaranteeing purchases from newly built coal plants also complicates the energy transition.