Thanksgiving shoppers face higher turkey prices as family farms struggle with rising costs

Wholesale whole turkeys averaged $1.80 per pound in late October, up from $1.69 per pound for the same week last year, according to David Anderson, Ph.D., an AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics. The Weatherford Democrat reported that retail prices are also slightly higher per pound, though shoppers can find deals on centerpiece Thanksgiving turkeys.

"National average grocery store prices for whole, conventionally produced, frozen turkeys in early November averaged $1.26 per pound compared to $1.03 a year ago," Anderson said. He cautioned that individual stores may charge different prices and may run promotions to draw shoppers. Wholesale prices are what grocers and other retailers pay suppliers in the "spot" market, not what shoppers pay at the register, and retail prices often reflect store promotions and earlier contracted prices more than the spot market.

Supply has improved. Turkey production has recovered from last year's decline of more than 8%, the number of birds going to market is up about 3%, and heavier average weights push total pounds of production up nearly 6%. A few highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks have been reported in recent weeks, but not enough to significantly affect holiday supplies. Better demand, higher wholesale prices and lower feed costs have also improved conditions for turkey producers.

The USDA retail report for late October shows more grocery stores featuring turkeys than at the same point last year, with about 2,500 stores nationwide advertising frozen conventional whole birds, both under and over 16 pounds. Last year's retail surveys showed fewer turkey specials than usual. Grocers contract for Thanksgiving turkeys well in advance and use them to draw customers into stores, and Anderson expects more features as the holiday gets closer.

Wholesale prices this year have run consistently higher than in 2025, but the gap has narrowed. Last year, wholesale prices jumped 70% from 99 cents. Anderson said Thanksgiving turkey demand has held up well over the years, while demand for a second turkey around Christmas has faded.

The Weatherford Democrat also reported on district crop and weather conditions, including repeated rains that improved soil moisture and pasture growth in some areas, drought persisting in others, and winter wheat planting that progressed unevenly. Hay prices were high due to short supplies in one area, while hay supplies were as large as producers have had in recent years elsewhere. Cotton, peanut and silage harvests were slowed by wet fields in parts of the district, and livestock conditions ranged from very poor to excellent.