This Shipping Lane Is Now the World’s Deadliest. It Isn’t Hormuz.

The London marine war market is holding two contradictory positions at once, Insurance Business reported. In the Middle East Gulf, where more than 110 claims have produced estimated payouts of around US$2.5 billion, underwriters are cutting prices to win business; Gulf rates have eased to 7–9%, with some cover written as low as 5%. In the Black Sea, hull war premiums have climbed as high as 20%, roughly four times tanker war levels and well above Second World War benchmarks. Lloyd's List reckons that is about ten times what Atlantic convoys paid. A vessel insured for US$50 million would, at 20%, attract about US$10 million in additional premium for one exposure, making many voyages uneconomic.

At the turn of the year Black Sea war cover was still measured in fractions of a percent, rising to about 1% of hull value in January from 0.6–0.8% in late December. The first big shift came on 16 September when the Joint War Committee — a joint committee of the LMA and the IUA — issued circular JWLA-035 extending the listed area across most of the Black Sea, leaving out only the territorial waters of Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia. October showed why: over 24 days, drones hit nine cargo ships and tankers near the Bulgarian and Romanian coasts, and at least 30 seafarers were confirmed dead or reported missing. The Khoryv, a Comoros-flagged carrier, capsized and sank about 13 nautical miles off Constanta on 23 October. Maritime security firm Ambrey counts 696 security events in the Western Black Sea, around 537 of them in Ukrainian waters.

Diplomatic pressure is building. An October submission to the International Maritime Organization was backed by 35 governments and the European Commission, the UK among them, alongside Black Sea states Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia. NATO has said it will deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to strengthen its eastern flank in the Black Sea. For shipping clients, the biggest change may be contractual. Two analysts told Lloyd's List they had been approached about potential charterparty disputes, with owners seeking to refuse charterers' orders to Romanian and Bulgarian ports. Ambrey reports that some masters and crew are now reluctant to sail to either country, putting war risk clauses in time and voyage charters — many of them BIMCO forms — under scrutiny.

Commercial fallout is already large. Ukraine suspended its Black Sea port operations in late July, rerouting cargo via Danube ports and Romania's Sulina Canal. Russian grain exports through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov dropped to 0.3 million tonnes in September, from 4.74 million tonnes a year before. The Gulf story is going in the opposite direction. Attacks there haven't stopped: UK Maritime Trade Operations reports show more than 20 vessels, mostly tankers, attacked in Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman since 1 October. Loss estimates have grown; in August, IUMI director general Lars Lange estimated US$1.5–2 billion of claims from about 70 casualties. Yet rates have swung down. Marsh global head of marine Marcus Baker put the pre-war rate at about 0.25%. As recently as mid-October, brokers were quoting additional premiums of 6–10% of hull value for Gulf tankers. Two forces are pulling rates down: capacity, much of it raised in London — Beazley put together a US$1 billion marine war consortium at Lloyd's in April, split equally between hull war and cargo war, with backing from Lloyd's syndicates and London company market insurers; a further Lloyd's facility announced in June offers up to US$200 million each for hull and P&I risks, plus US$200 million of cargo capacity for Hormuz transits — and competition on terms, with some underwriters introducing no-claims bonuses for Hormuz voyages, reportedly returning as much as half the premium to owners whose ships get through without incident. Lloyd's has so far played down the balance-sheet risk, saying in a 14 May market message it did not expect the conflict to become a capital event. Lange argues that war risk can only stay insurable if priced well above peacetime levels. The reinsurance market is showing strain: according to Marsh Re's Global Specialties 2026 Market Update, Middle East losses in the war, terrorism and political violence class are above US$2 billion, against annual gross premiums of roughly US$2.5 billion, which could make this the class's first loss-making year. London carriers will feel that when they renew their own protection at 1 January. For brokers placing shipping and commodity business, Black Sea cover now moves on a daily cycle; calls at Russian or Ukrainian ports require additional war cover, normally written for seven days, with terms now reviewed every 24 hours. London has decided the Gulf is a risk it can price and compete for; in the Black Sea, it's the owners who are now deciding whether any price is worth paying.