Yttrium's 125-Fold Price Gap Looms Over Trump-Xi Talks in Shenzhen

China extended the pause on its sweeping October 2025 rare earth export controls to Jan. 10, according to Crude Oil Prices Today reporting on Reuters details, giving buyers a two-month reprieve. However, the metal squeezing buyers hardest is yttrium, which is governed by a separate set of licensing rules imposed by Beijing in April 2025 on seven medium and heavy rare earths. Crude Oil Prices Today noted that the law firm Pillsbury listed those April rules among measures still in force when the pause began last November. Bloomberg reported that China's yttrium oxide exports operate at about two-fifths of their 2023-2024 average, with almost none reaching Japan this year.

Argus Media prices cited by Crude Oil Prices Today show about $1.15 million a ton in Europe compared with $9,144 in China, creating a 125-fold price gap that barely existed prior to the curbs. AFP reported that Chinese customs data showed 4,000 kilograms of yttrium oxide arriving in September compared to 51,000 a year earlier, hitting Japan the hardest. The Financial Times reported on Oct. 20 that Tokyo is months away from running out and has asked Washington to pressure Beijing. An AFP report noted that a Japanese industry ministry official stated global yttrium exports have stalled, causing a supply-demand crunch. Bloomberg added that yttrium protects turbine blades in gas-fired power plants and jet engines, meaning the shortage extends far beyond chipmaking. The IEA warned in July that full implementation of China's expanded controls could risk about $6.5 trillion a year of downstream production outside China.

President Trump is expected to meet President Xi on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, scheduled for Nov. 18-19, with Washington complaining that rare earths are not flowing as promised. Crude Oil Prices Today reported that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer used a video call with Vice Premier He Lifeng to request concrete actions, while a former senior U.S. official told The National that some inside the administration believe China has overpromised and underdelivered. Non-China supply is slow to arrive; Bloomberg reported that Lynas Rare Earths will not begin yttrium output at its Malaysian plant until 2028, while Metal Tech News stated that USA Rare Earth delivered its first yttrium oxide samples from a Colorado demonstration plant to an unnamed customer for testing.

Chi Hin Ling, head of metals pricing for Asia at Argus, told Bloomberg that no one has a clear view of warehouse quantities because global stockpiles of critical minerals lack transparency.