Spain's right well ahead in polls for November 29 election

Spain's conservative People's Party (PP) is well ahead in polls for the November 29 general election and would require the right-wing Vox to secure a parliamentary majority, according to Reuters. Sánchez called early elections in October after a failed housing measure, seeking to mobilize his left-wing base. Reuters noted that Spain's hard-left parties failed to agree on a common list of candidates last month, reducing the prime minister's chances of staying in power at the head of a leftist coalition.

Several polls illustrate the current political landscape. A SocioMetrica poll published by El Español projected around 200 seats in the 350-seat lower house for the PP and Vox combined, with the Socialists getting 108 seats, according to Reuters. That poll was based on 5,460 online interviews with a margin of error of 3 percentage points and showed a net transfer of 832,000 voters from the left to the right. A survey by 40dB for El Pais showed the gap between the PP and the Socialists narrowing to 2 percentage points as the Socialists advanced 1.8 percentage points to 29.9% of voting intentions, while the combined right wing secured around 190 seats. The 40dB survey included 2,000 online respondents with a 2.2-percentage-point margin of error. A Sigma Dos poll published by El Mundo pointed to the Socialists winning 105 seats, trailing behind 199 seats for the PP and Vox, based on 4,172 respondents and a 2.1-percentage-point margin of error. An IMOP poll for El Confidencial focused on vote transfers, pointing to a drop in voter loyalty for the Socialists and a rise for the PP largely at the expense of Vox supporters, according to Reuters. Additionally, Reuters reported that the Broad Front is poised to win 10 to 15 seats while its rival Podemos is at risk of losing its parliamentary representation.

The accident shifted the campaign focus away from housing and onto rail infrastructure, raising doubts about the competence of the left-wing government. Ignacio Urquizu, director of the independent polling firm Metroscopia, stated via the San Juan Daily Star that systemic failures tend to hurt governments because they are held accountable. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the Popular Party, criticized the government's response, stating that safety systems and control centers failed, according to the San Juan Daily Star. Meanwhile, Diari ARA reported that right-wing newspapers rushed quick polls following the tragedy in Toledo to capture voter sentiment during a moment of maximum shock.