World heading for ‘irrevocable overshoot’ of global temperature thresholds, analysis warns

According to The Guardian, the world is heading for an “irrecoverable overshoot” of global temperature thresholds that will plunge billions of people into disastrous climate impacts because governments have stalled for so long to cut planet-heating emissions. Under current policies, the planet will heat up by 2.7C on average by the end of the century compared with preindustrial times, as found by a report from Climate Action Tracker (CAT). This prediction is up slightly from 2.6C in the group's analysis conducted last year. This level of warming smashes the 1.5C threshold agreed by countries a decade ago, which is set to be breached in just a few years. Scientists have warned that beyond this point, impacts will become intolerable and potentially trigger runaway climate change.

Countries, minus the US, are gathered in Antalya, Turkey, for UN climate talks focused on the looming overshoot of the temperature target. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Tuesday that this reality should compel governments to act quickly to phase out fossil fuels. If countries acted decisively to slash emissions, future temperature projections would become less daunting, according to the CAT report. Even in the most optimistic scenario where all pledges and long-term promises are fulfilled, the world would still heat up by 1.9C by the end of the century. Such targets have been routinely flouted by countries, presenting leaders with a crunch moment.

Bill Hare, chief executive of CAT partner organisation Climate Analytics, stated that governments face a stark choice between continuing to support the fossil fuel industry or pivoting to cheaper solutions. Hare added that exceeding 1.5C warming cannot be an excuse for defeatism and that every small increment of temperature rise is significant. Despite failing to cut emissions in line with science and promises, carbon pollution is set to dip slightly this year. CAT pointed to causes for optimism, noting that clean energy investment is double that of fossil fuels, electric car use is soaring, and deforestation of the Amazon in Brazil has fallen sharply.

Swedish climate advocate Greta Thunberg arrived in Antalya on Tuesday and warned that everything and everyone we love is at stake. Sarah Heck, lead author of the CAT report, stated that governments collectively are not moving fast enough to escape the emerging overshoot trap. Heck added that some countries, including the US, Canada and New Zealand, are even slowing down their climate action to a staggering level.